Two years ago, as you can read on Facebook - I did an election day prediction which was pretty much on the nose about a number of local, state, and federal elections. This year, being such a major election, I have decided to bring back "ELECTION PANDEMONIUM" (a little overhyped I know).
Before I begin, I want to note that a number of people, notably certain Democrats, railed Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean for his 50-state strategy he pushed forward after being named chair. Those certain Democrats have shut their mouths up due to the prospect of controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House for the first time in 14 years through grassroots organizing as well as pumping up the funds of state parties which haven't seen that much of an effort by the DNC to assist in the past.
It speaks to whose party it is. Obama has basically added to Dean's efforts, organized a massive campaign rooted in the grass, and successfully won the nomination of his party as well as changed procedures of the DNC such as not accepting contributions from lobbyists. Meanwhile, McCain seems to be more or less the grudingly-accepted nominee of a party in shambles. It's similar to what happened to Bob Dole in 1996 - it simply wasn't his party, it was Newt's. This time, it's not McCain's party - it's still pretty much Bush's still. It happened to the Democrats too in 2004 and somewhat in 2000, where it was still Clinton's party and not Gore's.
For President, unless there is some sort of a massive fraud in the polling organizations and people have been lying all this time, I believe your 44th President will be Barack Obama. Poor Johnny Mac couldn't muster enough support (or hate) to stop the Obama train. I would look at an electoral tide of around 363 for Obama/Biden and 185 for McCain/Palin. A massive reputidation of what's been happening in the country for the last eight years. If you want to be cryptic about it, the Pittsburgh Steelers won against the Washington Redskins. Usually the week of election day, if the 'Skins win, the incumbent party wins. If the challenging team wins, usually the party out of power.
For control of the U.S. House and Senate, Democrats should be padding their majority with another 20-22 seats in the House. For the Senate, I'm looking more conservative here and I believe we will see 57, not the magic 60 needed to make it filibuster-proof. Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel's efforts will have paid handsomely this year. I would also add that I would not be surprised if you see the Democrats strip Joe Lieberman of some of his chair posts, sometime in the next Congress.
For New York State, the reign of the Republican Party's control of the State Senate will be officially over tonight. A long time coming, Democrats will control both the Senate and the Assembly as well as the Executive Chamber.
Locally, you'll see Amsterico's (Amsterdam for those of you who don't know the Montgomery County city) own former Assemblyman Paul Tonko beating oil and banking baron Jim Buhrmaster for the 21st Congressional District.
In the more hotly contended 20th Congressional District between Rep. Kirsten Gillbrand and former Pataki-era Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell, Sandy will realize that the millions he put into this race would not be worth it. The race will be very close, but you will be seeing a second term for Gillibrand.
For Albany County District Attorney between Democrat David Soares, the incumbent, against Integrity Party candidate and Soares rival in the 2004 race Roger Cusick, it'll be closer than what people imagine it to be for Albany County as was the case in 2004. Soares should still win, albeit any major problems.
Looking toward 2010 with not only the midterm elections but statewide elections, you'll be starting to hear more names running for Governor, Comptroller, and Attorney General. Likely candidates for the Democratic side of Governor are current Governor David Paterson, U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer, and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (his second run after 2002). For the Republicans, you could possibly have Giuliani, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, and U.S. Representative George Winner. For U.S. Senate, should Schumer run, I would believe RFK Jr. would be a top candidate for the Democrats and you would probably see possibly Jeanine Pirro again.
For both Senate and Governor, Bloomberg would have been a candidate had not NYC voted to repeal the term limits for Mayor.
And that's what's happening today. Going to possibly be a good time.